LA Russa Into Move Series

Baseball Betting Lines

Sonnanstine has spent his entire five-year career with the Tampa Bay Rays and has made 80 starts, but has been used primarily as a reliever for the past two seasons. Overall, the 28-year-old southpaw is 28-31 with a 5.26 earned run average and one save.

 

In 2011 Sonnanstine made 15 appearances -- four starts -- with the Rays and posted an 0-2 record with a 5.55 ERA.

 

Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With Prince Fielder no closer to finding a home and no other news in sight, Major League Baseball appears to be officially closed for business until 2012. So, of course, there is no better time than now to reflect on the top stories of the past year. Without further ado and in no particular order, here are the top stories from the past year:

 

If you told fans in St. Louis back in the beginning of August that their team would be the ones left standing at the end of the season, they'd probably say you were nuts. The Cards found themselves 10 1/2 games out of a playoff spot in late August only to go 23-8 down the stretch and secured the wild card spot on the final day of the regular season.

 

Then it was a date with the Texas Rangers in the World Series.

 

Few people get the chance to go out as a winner, but Cardinals manager Tony La Russa did just that, as he announced his retirement from the game a mere two days after the franchise celebrated its 11th World Series title in team history.

 

As if losing La Russa wasn't enough for the Cardinals, Albert Pujols shocked the baseball world at the conclusion of the Winter Meetings, as he signed a monster 10-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim that will reportedly pay him between $250-260 million. The lucrative deal ended his 11- year run in St. Louis that saw him win three NL MVPs and two World Series titles.

 

The Angels had been lurking all along in the process, but most assumed that it was a two-team race between the Miami Marlins and Cardinals. Even more felt it was a fait accompli that he would return to St. Louis when Miami refused to give him a no-trade clause through the first five years.

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<< Calgary From Flames Puck

<< Madison Square Garden Beats Season Over Ottawa

<< Blues Joins Victory Of Hitchcock

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Tee Ball Joins Feet Of Birdie >>

Kings Beats Boston Over Sacramento >>

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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